Can Avatar Become the First-Ever $3 Billion Movie at the Box Office?

James Cameron’s 2009 sci-fi blockbusterAvatar, once again, stands alone as thehighest-grossing movie in box office history. The movie was recently re-released in China, as theaters in the country have reopened and seen steady business in recent months. It earned just enough to put it in front ofAvengers: Endgame, which took the title fromAvatarin the summer of 2019. But now, Cameron is back in charge as the unquestioned king of the box office. An important, if seemingly crazy question must now be asked; canAvatarbecome the first movie in history to cross the$3 billion dollarmark?

First, let’s look at where things stand. With the recent grosses added upon its Chinese re-release, as of this writing,Avatarhas earned just over $2.81 billion worldwide. That puts it aboveAvengers: Endgame, which had managed to bring in just shy of $2.8 billion during its record-breaking run in 2019. That means,Avatarwould need to add an additional $189 million, give or take a few hundred thousand, to crack the $3 billion mark.

That would put us in truly unprecedented territory. Especially considering that only five movies in history have ever crossed the $2 billion mark. And two of those movies,Star Wars: The Force Awakens($2.06 billion) andAvengers: Infinity War($2.04 billion) are, relatively speaking,just barelyin that elite club. The fifth movie being another James Cameron blockbuster in the form of 1997’sTitanicwhich, over time, has climbed its way to $2.2 billion, good enough for the number three spot. Though that also illustrates the insane rarity, almost bordering on impossible fluke, that isAvatar.

Before diving into howAvatarcould, and I stresscouldget to $3 billion, it is worth looking at how the movie made its money in the first place. UnlikeAvengers: Endgame, which had an Earth-shattering $357 million domestic opening weekend, then inched its way to $2.8 billion,Avataropened, somewhat humbly by comparison, to $77 million domestically in December 2009. But the drop-off was not sharp. It declined less than 2 percent in its second weekend, taking in another $75 million. And it just kept going, and going, with a similar pattern emerging overseas.

Eventually, after months in theaters, it had amassed nearly $2 billion in international grosses to go with around $750 million domestically. Its path to the top was not a typical one for a major blockbuster. It didn’t have one big weekend only to fall off the face of the Earth in a matter of weeks. This was, to use a possibly outdated reference, the Energizer Bunny of blockbusters. It just kept going and going. It is also worth pointing out that premium format theaters, such as 3D and IMAX, which generally carry a higher ticket price, were a huge factor.

But that was 2009. This is now. Much has changed. For one, it remains to be seen just how much of anAvatarfanbase there is out there. Was this purely an of its moment thing? Does it have staying power? Is it timeless, as director James Cameron has suggested? That will be the million-dollar question in the coming months as we speed toward the release of Avatar 2 (as well asAvatar 3, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5). Because it’s the interest in those sequels that could, in turn, provide a huge boost to the original movie that Disney hopes will become a multi-billion dollar, multi-movie franchise.

BecauseAvatarwas released so long ago, Disney will inevitably re-release the movie elsewhere as the box office begins to stabilize around the world. Particularly, we should expect a big, flashy re-release in the months leading up to the release ofAvatar 2 in December 2022. If audiences turn up to reacquaint themselves with theworld of Pandoraen masse in anticipation of the long-awaited sequel, $3 billion could be in reach. Though it is, admittedly, a stretch.

Even in the best of cases, a blockbuster’s re-release in theaters has its limits. Take, for example, the 20th-anniversary re-release ofJurassic Parkin 2013. Steven Spielberg’s beloved dino-filled adaptation of Michael Crichton’s novel of the same name took in $118.1 million during its run. This was, again, aided by 3D tickets at the time. The other example, when looking at the established ceiling for this sort of thing, is 1997’s release of theStar Warsspecial editions by George Lucas.A New Hopetook in a truly impressive $138.2 million during its domestic re-release.The Empire Strikes Backearned $67.5 million whileReturn of the Jedinotched an additional $45.4 million. And this isStar Warswe’re talking about.

Accounting for inflation,Star Wars: A New Hope’s re-release would have earned around $300 million in today’s dollars. So the bigger, more specific question is, canAvatardo whatStar Warsdid in 1997? It unquestionably helps thatAvatarwill likely be released in various territories around the world. It won’t be relying purely on moviegoers in the U.S. If, and it is perhaps a big if, that interest is there and excitement builds for the sequel, a new box office record, the likes of which may truly never be achieved again, could be in the cards. Avatar 2 is set to hit theaters on June 07, 2025. Avatar 3 will arrive on July 01, 2025, with set to follow on June 05, 2025. And finally, Avatar 5 on July 10, 2025. These numbers were provided byBox Office Mojo.