Can Death Wish End Black Panther's Box Office Reign?

Marvel’sBlack Pantheris a proven force to be reckoned with at thebox office, hauling in an impressive $111.6M in its second weekend, just a 44.7% drop from it’s incredible three-day debut of $202M. Last Friday it went up against three newcomers, Warner Bros.‘Game Night, Paramount’sAnnihilationand Orion Pictures’Every Day. While they all cracked the top 10, none could come close toBlack Panther’s dominance. This weekend, two more high-profile releases arrive in wide release, with MGM’sDeath Wishremake starring Bruce Willis and 20th Century Fox’sRed Sparrowadaptation starring Jennifer Lawrence. While both should fare well, neither will be able to stopBlack Pantherfor repeating atop the box office for a third weekend in a row.

Black Panthersuffered a second weekend drop of 44.7%, which is rather impressive for a movie of its size. TheMCU adventure remained in 4,020 theaters, the same number of theaters it debuted in during its record-breaking opening, where it pulled in an impressive $27,776 per-screen average. While it hasn’t been confirmed if the theater count will change much, or at all, inBlack Panther’s third weekend, even if it doesn’t drop slightly, it will likely still have an advantage over the two newcomers this weekend.Death Wishis expected to open in roughly 2,700 theaters whileRed Sparrowis expected to have a slight advantage over its fellow newcomer, arriving in roughly 2,900 theaters. We’re predicting thatBlack Pantherwill have a slightly bigger drop in its third weekend, but it will still be enough to pull in $60.2M, and easily take down the two newcomers.

We’re predicting thatDeath WishandRed Sparrowwill be quite close to one another, withDeath Wishdebuting in second place with $21.6M andRed Sparrowjust behind it in third place with $19.8M. It’s entirely possible that both movies switch places when the box office estimates arrive on Sunday morning, but both of theseR-rated moviesshould put up steady debuts, even if neither of them has a chance to catchBlack Panther. No budget details were listed for either movie, but the fact that two R-rated movies are the only two wide releases in the first weekend in March is a sign of how audience’s tastes have evolved over the past few years.

Rounding out the top 10 this weekend will likely beGame Night($9.1 million),Peter Rabbit($6.2 million),Annihilation($5.9 million),Fifty Shades Freed($3.1 million),Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle($2.9 million),The 15:17 to Paris($1.8 million) andThe Greatest Showman($1.7 million). It’s worth noting that this could be the last weekend two of last year’s late surprise hits,Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle($387.2M domestic, $920.9M worldwide, $90M budget) andThe Greatest Showman($160.7M domestic, $361.5M worldwide, $84M budget) will crack the top 10, but since both movies debuted in December, and have even out-lastedStar Wars: The Last Jediin the top 10, is truly an impressive feat for both movies.

Looking ahead to next weekend, four new movies arrive in wide release, with Disney’sA Wrinkle in Time, STX Entertainment’sGringo, Aviron’sStrangers: Prey at Nightand Entertainment Studios’The Hurricane Heist. Also debuting next weekend in limited release is CinemaGuild’sClaire’s Camera, Well Go USA’sGirls vs. Gangsters, Magnolia’sLeaning Into the Wild, Sony Pictures Classics’The Leisure Seeker, Vertical Entertainment’sSheep & Wolvesand Focus Features’Thoroughbreds. Take a look at the box office projections for the weekend of March 2, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.