Will Girl on the Train Ride to the Top of the Fall Box Office?

Last weekend’s winnerMiss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Childrenhelped bring the box office out of the September doldrums with an opening weekend victory of $28.8 million, besting another high-profile new release, the true story adaptationDeepwater Horizon, which opened in second place with $20.2 million. The first weekend in October brings three new releases to challengeMiss Peregrine, Universal’sThe Girl On the Train, Fox Searchlight’sThe Birth Of a Nationand Lionsgate’sMiddle School: The Worst Years Of My Life. We’re predicting that, despite some middling reviews,The Girl On the Trainwill take the top spot with $24.3 million.

The Girl On the Trainis based on the wildly popular debut novel byPaula Hawkins, which became a publishing sensation when it debuted in January 2015. While some movie adaptations can take years to get production started,Tate Taylorsigned on to direct in May 2015, with the cast coming together swiftly in just a few months, before production began in New York City this past October.Box Office Mojoreports thatThe Girl On the Trainwill debut in more than 3,000 theaters, whileMiddle Schoolwill arrive in roughly 2,600 theaters andThe Birth Of a Nationis set to debut in 2,000 theaters.

As of now,The Girl On the Trainisn’t as big a hit with movie critics as it was with its literary counterparts, with just a 56% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.The Birth of a Nation, writer-director-starNate Parker’s indie film that took Sundance by storm, and was purchased by Fox Searchlight for a record $17.5 million in January, has an 81% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Some are wondering whether or not the 17-year-old rape accusation against writer-director-starNate Parkerwhich recently resurfaced will hurt its box office performance and/or its Oscar chances. Lionsgate’sMiddle Schooldoesn’t have enough reviews for a Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes quite yet.

In the thrillerThe Girl On the Train, Rachel (Emily Blunt), who is devastated by her recent divorce, spends her daily commute fantasizing about the seemingly perfect couple who live in a house that her train passes every day, until one morning she sees something shocking happen there and becomes entangled in the mystery that unfolds.Emily Bluntleads an all-star cast inThe Girl on the Train, alongsideRebecca Ferguson,Haley Bennett,Justin Theroux,Luke Evans,Allison Janney,Edgar Ramirez,Lisa KudrowandLaura Prepon.Tate Taylor(The Help) directs from an adapted screenplay byErin Cressida Wilson(Men, Women and Children).

Set against the antebellum South,The Birth Of a Nationfollows Nat Turner (Nate Parker), a literate slave and preacher, whose financially strained owner, Samuel Turner (Armie Hammer), accepts an offer to use Nat’s preaching to subdue unruly slaves. As he witnesses countless atrocities - against himself and his fellow slaves - Nat orchestrates aslave uprisingin the hopes of leading his people to freedom. The supporting cast includesJackie Earle Haley,Gabrielle Union,Penelope Ann Miller,Mark Boone Junior,Colman Domingo,Aunjanue Ellis,Aja Naomi KingandAlkoya Brunson. We’re predicting thatThe Birth of a Nationwill take third place with $12.4 million, behind last week’s winnerMiss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Childrenin second place with $16.2 million.

Deepwater Horizon($11.4 million) andMiddle School: The Worst Years of My Life($9.4 million) will likely round out the top 5 this weekend.Middle School: The Worst Years of My Lifefollows imaginative quiet teenager Rafe Katchadorian is tired of his middle school’s obsession with the rules at the expense of any and all creativity. Desperate to shake things up, Rafe and his best friends have come up with a plan: break every single rule in the school and let thestudents run wild. The cast includesLauren Graham,Adam Pally,Rob Riggle,Efren Ramirez,Griffin Gluck,Isabela MonerandAndrew Daly.

The top 10 will likely be rounded out byThe Magnificent Seven($8.5 million),Storks($7.3 million),Sully($4.1 million),Masterminds($3.2 million) andQueen of Katwe($1.4 million). Also opening in limited release is Rialto’sThe Battle of Algiers, Strand’sBeing 17, Shout! Factory’sBlinky Bill, The Orchard’sBlue Jay, FilmRise’sThe Greasy Strangler, Cinestaan’sMirzya, Vertical Entertainment’sUnder the Shadow, Arc Entertainment’s documentaryTorchbearer, ArtAffects’Voiceless, Well Go USA’sPhantasm: Remasteredand IMAX’sVoyage of Time: The IMAX Experience. We don’t know for sure if any of these limited release titles will expand in the weeks and months to come.

Looking ahead to next weekend, three new movies will open in wide release. Warner Bros.‘The Accountant, starringBen Affleck, will go up against Lionsgate’s stand-up comedy concert filmKevin Hart: What Now?and Open Road Films’Max Steel. Also opening in limited release is IFC’sCertain Women, STX Entertainment’sDesierto, Pantelion’sLa Leyenda del Chupacabras, Arc Entertainment’sMaya Angelou and Still I Rise, GKIDS’Miss Hokusai, Roadside Attractions’Priceless, Indican’sSearch Enginesand TriCoast Worldwide’sShadow World. Check back on Sunday for the box office estimates, but until then, take a look at our predictions for the weekend of October 7.